The Cincinnati Reds are preparing for a pivotal series against the St. Louis Cardinals, one that could make or break their postseason hopes. While winning any series is important, the circumstances surrounding this matchup make a sweep feel almost necessary.
Heading into Friday’s opener, the Reds are barely hanging on in the National League Wild Card race. After a tough 10-day, nine-game road trip along the West Coast, Cincinnati has lost ground and now sits on the edge of contention with just about a month left in the regular season.
On Thursday, however, the Reds got an unexpected lift from the Miami Marlins. While Cincinnati had an off-day, the Marlins defeated the New York Mets 7–4, giving the Reds a half-game of breathing room. With the Mets in the middle of a four-game set against Miami, Cincinnati’s chances to gain more ground remain alive if New York continues to stumble.
The Marlins’ win was surprising, especially after the Mets recently handled the Philadelphia Phillies with ease. But costly New York errors opened the door, allowing Miami to score three unearned runs in the third inning and tack on three more in the seventh. The Mets’ defensive lapses proved costly as Miami held on for the victory.
Thanks to that result, Cincinnati now trails New York by four games instead of five in the Wild Card standings. If the Reds can take advantage of their series against the Cardinals, and the Mets continue to falter against Miami, the gap could close even further.
At this point, the race looks to be between two teams. The Reds (68–66) are chasing the Mets (72–62), while the San Diego Padres (75–59) remain three games clear in the Wild Card picture. According to FanGraphs, Cincinnati’s playoff odds have dropped to just 4.6%, but Thursday’s unexpected help from Miami may provide a much-needed spark as they begin their showdown with St. Louis.
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