The Cincinnati Reds, recently swept by the Los Angeles Dodgers, now sit 4.5 games behind the final NL Wild Card spot. While their season isn’t over, the organization may already be looking toward the offseason — with Gavin Lux’s future at the center of discussions.
Cincinnati acquired Lux last year in a trade that cost them top prospect Mike Sirota and a competitive balance draft pick. The Reds expected Lux to solidify their infield and improve on Jonathan India’s production. Although he has been better offensively than India, his defensive struggles have raised concerns. According to Baseball Savant, Lux has posted a -7 Outs Above Average, the worst defensive mark of his career. Despite a solid .732 OPS, his overall contribution has been underwhelming, resulting in a -0.1 bWAR.
Lux has one year of team control left before becoming a free agent in 2027. With the Reds recently committing to Ke’Bryan Hayes — a defensive standout owed $42 million through the decade — it seems unlikely Lux will be part of Cincinnati’s long-term plans. Trading him this offseason could free up both salary and a roster spot while bringing back another prospect.
The Reds also have infield depth waiting in the wings. Sal Stewart, one of their top prospects, is excelling at Triple-A Louisville with a 1.055 OPS in 35 games. Stewart can play third or second base, making Lux’s role more expendable. In addition, Miguel Andujar has outperformed Lux as a designated hitter, further limiting his value to the team.
If the Reds move on from Lux, the saved resources could be redirected to strengthen the bullpen or add a defensive outfielder. Potential options include Harrison Bader — should he become available — or Cedric Mullins, whose bat could provide depth despite recent defensive decline.
Cincinnati has the pieces to contend for a 2026 playoff run, especially if their core of Elly De La Cruz, Hunter Greene, and Ke’Bryan Hayes continues to develop. But for that vision to come true, moving on from Gavin Lux may be the necessary step to balance the roster and maximize future opportunities.
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